Abram Hoffer PhD, RNCP, President, and Frances Fuller, RNCP (Cand.), CEO
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I should have used weasel terms: instead of causes, I should have written may cause. Because using the word "may" allows the proponent of the factoid to suggest that these factoids are true, but leaves an escape path in case they turn out not to be true. The author can then claim, "Well, I did not say that these factors were true. I merely suggested that they might be true." There is the usual confusion of probability and possibility. If a phenomenon occurs once out of a million times the probability is one out of a million, but there is no value attached to the possibility. It is indeed possible. The enormous sale of lottery tickets depends upon confusing the public in this way. Or, looked at in another way, if the probability of winning a lottery is one in ten million if one buys one ticket, and the probability is zero if one does not buy the ticket, then one can say that dividing the ratio one in ten million by zero yields the enormous probability of infinity that one will win the lottery. Any number divided by zero yields infinitesimal large values. Critics of megavitamin therapy never give any probability values since they know they are close to zero.
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